The Trump administration’s rosy view of the economy is increasingly diverging from a decidedly more cautious outlook from other prognosticators, including economists at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere, who are warning that growth is slowing, in part because of the president’s own policies.
The side that turns out to be correct could heavily influence President Trump’s odds of re-election.
His team has predicted that inflation-adjusted growth will average 3 percent through 2024, a rate that far exceeds what other economists believe the United States economy is capable of, barring sharp growth in the labor force and worker productivity.
Many economists say last year was an outlier, fueled by a brief boost of fiscal stimulus: Growth appears to have topped 3 percent in 2018 for the first time in a decade. Yet Mr. Trump’s advisers say there is no reason to doubt the economy will achieve such heights again this year.
“Last year looked just like we thought, so we don’t think, going into our next forecast, that there’s a heck of a lot of reason to change our mind about things,” Kevin A. Hassett, the chairman of Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on Tuesday in an interview. He added: “Things basically worked like we expected.”
Economists outside the administration disagree and are projecting that growth will slow this year, as the global economy struggles under the weight of a trade war, a slowdown in China and the waning stimulus from both Mr. Trump’s signature tax cuts and additional government spending.
Many forecasters also see a small, but lasting, dent to growth from the partial government shutdown that consumed most of January, and which could recur in February if Mr. Trump and congressional leaders cannot agree on a border security deal. Some corporate financial executives warn that the country could be headed toward recession.
The Congressional Budget Office predicted this week that growth would slow to 2.3 percent this year and to 1.7 percent in 2020, as fiscal stimulus stops bolstering consumer spending and the economy returns to what the C.B.O. estimates is its long-term growth trend. The report estimated that growth was 3.1 percent in 2018, which was nearly on track with the budget office’s projections in April last year. The Commerce Department has not released the government’s official estimate for 2018 growth yet, because of delays from the shutdown.
Economists at the Fed said in December that they also expect 2.3 percent growth this year. Wall Street economists have similarly trimmed their forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report on Tuesday that “soft” economic survey data, including consumer confidence figures and regional Fed business surveys, suggest annualized growth of 2.1 percent for the first half of the year.
A new survey from the National Association of Business Economists found business investment growth slowing across the economy, with 84 percent of respondents saying that Mr. Trump’s tax cuts are not encouraging their companies to increase investment. Slowing global growth, particularly in China, has caused other forecasters to lower their growth estimates for the United States this year.
Mr. Trump’s advisers have not yet released their official forecast for the year. But White House officials say they continue to believe the economy will significantly outperform the expectations of more pessimistic projections, for several reasons.
The Council of Economic Advisers’ forecasting model is more bullish than the C.B.O., in part because the administration finds that much of the sluggish growth in the decade preceding Mr. Trump’s election was a hangover from the 2008 financial crisis. The Trump administration also projects a more sustained boost to growth from the .5 trillion tax cut package that went into effect last year and deregulatory efforts at agencies across the administration.
Administration officials, who are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts on Wednesday to try to end a trade war, dismiss concerns that trade policy or the shutdown have provided an economic drag.
“We think there's still a very good case for 3 percent this year,” Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said Tuesday on Fox Business Network.
Larry Kudlow, the chairman of the National Economic Council, told reporters on Monday that he believed the administration’s economic model was working. “The program of lower tax rates and regulatory rollback and opening up energy and so forth is working and continuing to work,” Mr. Kudlow said in a briefing at the White House. “And I think frankly the optimists, the guys that took the over, will be right.”
Mr. Trump could need that prediction to come true if he hopes to win in 2020. His approval ratings have sagged below 40 percent under the weight of the shutdown, even after recording in 2018 what appears to have been highest annual growth rate since the financial crisis, according to a polling average by the website FiveThirtyEight.
The last president with such low ratings at this point in a first term, Ronald Reagan, rebounded to win 49 states in his 1984 re-election campaign. Underpinning that comeback was a roaring economy: In 1983, the American economy grew 4.6 percent after adjusting for inflation. In 1984, it grew 7.2 percent, an annual rate that has not been matched since. The two presidents who most recently lost re-election, Jimmy Carter and George Bush, both saw growth slow the year before they faced voters again.
With Democrats now controlling the House of Representatives, Mr. Trump may have little opportunity to pass legislation, such as a second round of tax cuts, in an attempt to further stoke the economy. He does have the ability to work with Chinese leaders to secure a trade deal and with congressional Democrats to end the uncertainty over whether the government will shut down again soon, both of which could modestly aid growth.
There are two openings on the Fed’s board of governors, and Mr. Trump has indicated through aides that he will aim to fill them with nominees who will push the central bank to keep interest rates low to support growth.
Perhaps the most important component of growth, though, could be what happens to oil prices. Economists at the Penn Wharton Budget Model calculate that as American oil production has increased over the last decade, related in part to the shale boom, investment and growth in the United States have increasingly been tied to crude prices. Rising prices have brought rising investment. Falling prices nearly pushed the country into a contraction near the end of President Barack Obama’s second term.
Rising prices lifted growth under Mr. Trump last year, the economists found, and explained the surge in investment that Mr. Trump and his advisers have attributed to the tax cut.
Prices have fallen by nearly 25 percent from their peak level of 2018, leading the budget model’s economists to predict that business investment will be weaker at the start of this year than last year — contrary to what Mr. Trump’s team forecasts.
“The fundamentals are not as strong as they look from the top-line numbers,” said Alexander Arnon, a senior analyst at the budget model. Rising investment in 2018, he said, was “more attributable to global factors pushing oil prices up, and less to the underlying momentum in business growth.”
Mr. Hassett told reporters recently that he higher oil prices most likely contributed to a surge in energy investment in 2018. But, he added, “I’m sure that the drilling and mining effect was magnified by the beneficial tax changes, as well.”B:
118图库开奖结果日期【吕】【布】【端】【坐】【在】【马】【背】【上】，【目】【光】【远】【眺】，【怡】【然】【不】【动】。 【强】【大】【的】【人】【本】【身】【就】【会】【有】【着】【相】【当】【的】【自】【信】，【而】【如】【果】【跟】【在】【一】【个】【更】【加】【强】【大】【的】【人】【身】【旁】，【那】【种】【自】【信】，【将】【会】【变】【得】【更】【加】【的】【充】【实】。 【乱】【世】【之】【中】，【讲】【求】【的】【是】【实】【力】【为】【尊】，【谦】【和】【礼】【让】【的】【人】【性】【虽】【然】【也】【能】【够】【让】【人】【亲】【近】，【但】【不】【会】【令】【人】【信】【服】，【也】【难】【以】【服】【众】。 【毕】【竟】，【在】【乱】【世】【之】【中】，【永】【远】【不】【要】【低】【估】【人】【类】【的】【残】【忍】
【雷】【龙】【王】【国】，【奥】【瑞】【杰】【大】【坟】【场】。 【平】【常】【时】【候】，【在】【这】【个】【雷】【龙】【王】【国】【最】【大】【的】【坟】【场】【里】，【基】【本】【上】【很】【难】【见】【到】【活】【人】。 【即】【便】【是】【大】【事】【件】【的】【到】【来】，【类】【龙】【生】【物】【的】【大】【规】【模】【入】【侵】，【这】【个】【地】【方】【也】【依】【旧】【人】【迹】【罕】【至】。 【因】【为】【这】【里】【是】【人】【族】【领】【域】【的】【内】【部】，【雷】【龙】【王】【国】【的】【后】【方】。 【无】【数】【的】【战】【士】【用】【自】【己】【的】【身】【躯】【将】【类】【龙】【生】【物】【阻】【挡】【在】【领】【域】【边】【缘】，【他】【们】【前】【仆】【后】【继】【着】【厮】【杀】【着】
【一】【场】【连】【绵】【三】【日】【的】【雨】【水】【洗】【净】【尘】【埃】，【灼】【然】【日】【光】【将】【草】【木】【枝】【叶】【晒】【得】【粲】【然】【发】【亮】。【碧】【凝】【拉】【开】【蕾】【丝】【帘】【布】，【探】【首】【向】【外】【望】【去】，【露】【水】【未】【晞】【沿】【着】【玻】【璃】【滚】【过】，【似】【珍】【珠】【粒】【粒】【分】【明】。 “【碧】【凝】！”【吕】【雁】【筠】【正】【俏】【生】【生】【立】【在】【窗】【下】，【隔】【着】【不】【近】【不】【远】【的】【距】【离】，【碧】【凝】【正】【巧】【能】【看】【见】【她】【一】【袭】【鹅】【黄】【衣】【裙】，【朝】【楼】【上】【的】【人】【挥】【舞】【手】【臂】。 【雁】【筠】【的】【唇】【角】【朝】【上】【微】【微】【翘】【着】，【勾】【勒】【出】【极】
【鲜】【血】、【哀】【嚎】、【厮】【杀】【声】【再】【度】【成】【为】【了】【战】【场】【的】【主】【旋】【律】。 “【子】【廉】，【速】【速】【前】【去】【接】【应】【文】【则】，【小】【心】【吕】【布】！”【曹】【操】【和】【戏】【志】【才】【在】【看】【到】【吕】【布】【回】【来】【的】【那】【一】【刻】，【就】【明】【白】【谋】【划】【要】【有】【变】【故】，【为】【了】【保】【证】【曹】【操】【的】【安】【全】，【戏】【志】【才】【直】【接】【就】【带】【着】【曹】【操】【向】【濮】【阳】【城】【南】【门】【退】【去】，【片】【刻】【后】【就】【和】【率】【兵】【出】【来】【保】【护】【曹】【操】【的】【曹】【洪】【兵】【马】【汇】【合】【到】【了】【一】【处】。 “【诺】！”【曹】【洪】【点】【了】【点】【头】，
【连】【续】【下】【了】【三】【天】【的】【雨】，【地】【上】【泥】【泞】【难】【行】，【天】【上】【灰】【蒙】【蒙】【一】【片】，【就】【象】【多】【数】【长】【安】【人】【心】【情】。 【东】【市】【狗】【脊】【岭】【是】【长】【安】【最】【热】【闹】【的】【地】【方】，【百】【杂】【戏】【引】【来】【阵】【阵】【喝】【彩】【声】，【商】【贾】【的】【叫】【卖】【声】【不】【绝】【于】【耳】。 【但】【这】【是】【两】【天】【前】【的】【情】【况】。 【这】【三】【天】【之】【内】【杀】【的】【人】【太】【多】【了】，【刚】【开】【始】【时】【大】【家】【还】【跑】【去】【看】【热】【闹】，【但】【随】【着】【杀】【的】【人】【越】【来】【越】【多】，【所】【用】【的】【刑】【罚】【越】【来】【越】【残】【忍】，【不】【少】【人】118图库开奖结果日期【傅】【津】【义】【正】【言】【辞】【的】【说】【道】，【清】【澈】【的】【墨】【瞳】【坚】【定】【地】【望】【着】【万】【金】。 【傅】【津】【娘】【看】【到】【他】【这】【眼】【神】【心】【就】【凉】【了】【一】【大】【半】，【完】【了】，【儿】【子】【的】【犟】【驴】【脾】【气】【又】【犯】【了】。 【万】【金】【被】【他】“【大】【义】【凛】【然】”【的】【样】【子】【气】【的】【差】【点】【拿】【茶】【杯】【砸】【他】【一】【脸】，【他】【皮】【笑】【肉】【不】【笑】【地】【说】【道】：“【怎】【么】？【我】【都】【不】【计】【较】【了】【你】【还】【要】【负】【责】？【你】【想】【怎】【么】【负】【责】？” 【他】【要】【是】【敢】【说】【什】【么】【不】【嫌】【弃】【肯】【娶】【他】【闺】【女】【儿】【之】【类】
【作】【者】【的】【话】： 【感】【谢】【小】【伙】【伴】【看】【到】【这】【里】，【这】【是】【我】【写】【的】【第】【一】【篇】【小】【说】，【文】【笔】【很】【垃】【圾】，【感】【谢】【你】【们】【不】【嫌】【弃】，【陪】【我】【走】【到】【了】【现】【在】。 【这】【本】【书】【我】【曾】【经】【想】【过】【放】【弃】，【因】【为】【我】【原】【本】【想】【写】【的】【主】【线】【内】【容】【是】【男】【主】【叶】【辰】【为】【了】【调】【查】【母】【亲】【的】【死】【亡】【真】【相】【因】【此】【成】【为】【了】【特】【警】，【跟】【女】【主】【结】【婚】【只】【是】【为】【了】【不】【让】【家】【里】【面】【的】【长】【辈】【催】【着】【他】【而】【已】，【结】【果】【却】【意】【外】【发】【现】【各】【种】【有】【关】【的】【黑】【幕】【之】
【叶】【若】【眸】【色】【沉】【沉】，【向】【那】【水】【安】【榕】【再】【靠】【近】【了】【几】【步】，【抬】【手】【抚】【在】【它】【粗】【糙】【的】【树】【皮】【上】。 【没】【想】【到】【那】【树】【竟】【然】【就】【这】【样】【裂】【开】【了】【一】【个】【可】【容】【一】【人】【入】【的】【小】【洞】【口】，【叶】【若】【心】【里】【略】【犹】【豫】【了】【一】【下】，【手】【指】【微】【动】，【最】【后】【还】【是】【抬】【脚】【踏】【了】【进】【去】。 【竟】【然】【有】【请】，【那】【她】【便】【不】【客】【气】【了】。 【下】【面】【是】【一】【条】【并】【不】【长】【的】【阶】【梯】，【越】【往】【下】，【便】【越】【开】【阔】，【点】【点】【绿】【莹】【飘】【荡】【在】【周】【围】，【周】【围】【十】【分】